Billionaire businessman Femi Otedola has said the naira could trade below ₦1,000 to the US dollar before the end of 2026, following the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
Otedola shared the projection on X on Thursday while congratulating his friend and business partner, Aliko Dangote, on the refinery’s landmark achievement.
The naira has recently strengthened, trading around ₦1,354 to the dollar at the official market and about ₦1,430–₦1,440 on the parallel market, marking its strongest levels in over two years.
Describing the refinery’s output as transformative for Nigeria and Africa, Otedola highlighted its ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily. He said this would reduce reliance on fuel imports and save significant foreign exchange.
“With domestic refining now fully underway, pressure on the foreign exchange market will ease. Trading below ₦1,000 to the dollar before the end of the year is achievable,” he said.
Otedola noted that Dangote is also investing $12 billion to expand the refinery to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will include production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 tonnes of linear alkyl benzene, used in detergent manufacturing. Work on the expansion is already underway.
He said the refinery’s success comes at a time when the Central Bank of Nigeria is implementing measures to improve liquidity and narrow the gap between official and parallel exchange rates.
Otedola described the milestone as a “game-changer” for Nigeria’s fuel supply, foreign exchange reserves, and overall economic stability.
He added that the refinery’s operation will create jobs, boost local industries, and support the growth of Nigeria’s petrochemical sector.
“The ripple effect of this project is immense. From plastics to chemicals, local industries will benefit from increased availability of raw materials,” he said.
Otedola praised Dangote’s vision, calling the refinery a landmark achievement in Africa’s industrial development.
He highlighted that full domestic refining capacity would reduce fuel import costs, conserve foreign exchange, and strengthen the naira.
“The refinery is not just about fuel; it is about economic resilience, industrialisation, and sustainable growth for Nigeria,” he said.
Otedola also emphasized that regional energy security could improve, as surplus fuel could be supplied to neighbouring African countries.
He noted that continued monitoring of foreign exchange trends will be crucial to ensure the naira remains stable as domestic refining scales up.
Otedola encouraged further investment in infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects to build on the refinery’s momentum.
“The Dangote Refinery is a catalyst. With strategic planning, Nigeria can achieve a stronger currency and more stable economy,” he said.
He stressed that domestic refining would allow Nigeria to better control fuel pricing, supply, and economic outcomes.
Otedola’s prediction signals optimism for Nigerians, investors, and policymakers, highlighting the positive impact of large-scale local production on currency stability.
He said the refinery’s success demonstrates how private sector initiatives can drive national development and financial security.
Otedola concluded that the combined effect of full refinery operations and the planned expansion could transform Nigeria’s energy sector and help stabilise the naira before the end of 2026.
The milestone reinforces Nigeria’s potential as a hub for industrial growth and energy self-sufficiency in Africa.
Otedola’s forecast underscores the link between domestic refining, foreign exchange savings, and long-term economic growth.
With the Dangote Refinery now at full capacity, Nigerians can look forward to more stable fuel supply, stronger local industries, and a healthier naira.