Nigeria’s public external debt could climb to $72.6 billion by 2027, according to new projections by the International Monetary Fund, raising fresh concerns about the country’s growing debt burden despite recent economic reforms.
The IMF disclosed this in its latest Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, estimating that the country’s foreign debt will increase from $51.9 billion in 2025 to $66.5 billion in 2026 before reaching $72.6 billion in 2027. The projected rise represents an increase of more than $20 billion within two years.
According to the Fund, increasing spending pressures linked to poverty, food insecurity and activities leading up to the 2027 general elections could widen fiscal deficits and force the government to seek additional borrowing.
The report noted that while Nigeria has recorded improvements in macroeconomic stability through reforms implemented in recent years, concerns remain over the sustainability of the country’s debt profile and future financing needs.
Beyond government obligations, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s total external debt, including both public and private sector borrowings, could rise from $109.3 billion in 2025 to $132 billion by 2027.
The Fund also warned that debt servicing will continue to place pressure on public finances. Interest payments on government debt are expected to rise, while a significant portion of federal revenue could still be devoted to servicing existing loans.
In addition, the IMF expressed concerns over plans by the Federal Government to raise fresh funds through a proposed $5 billion financing arrangement with an international lender, warning that such transactions can be complex and may expose the country to additional financial risks.
Despite the concerns, the IMF acknowledged that recent reforms have helped improve economic resilience and stabilise key macroeconomic indicators. The organisation, however, urged authorities to maintain fiscal discipline and carefully manage future borrowing.
Economic analysts say the projections highlight the challenge facing policymakers as they seek to balance development spending, social welfare demands and infrastructure investment while keeping debt levels under control.
With the 2027 election season drawing closer, attention is expected to remain focused on government spending, borrowing plans and the long-term impact of rising debt on Nigeria’s economy.