Immediate past Director General of the Peter Obi Presidential Campaign Council, also known as the Obi-Datti Campaign Organisation, Dr Doyin Okupe has countered the results of a ThisDay (Arise) projection conducted on the 2023 general polls, which had claimed that All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidates, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, respectively, may head into a run-off poll after being tied in possible states projected to be captured by them.
According to the projections, ‘a run-off poll is increasingly likely in Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election, as Atiku has 21 states he’s sure of 25%, Tinubu has 20 states he’s sure of 25%.’
Okupe, who hours earlier, had announced his resignation as Director General of the Labour Party’s Obi-Datti Campaign Council, Tuesday, insisted that the candidate of the party, Dr Peter Obi will score minimum of 40 per cent in Lagos, while scoring 25 per cent in Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo, with another 15 per cent in Osun all in South West, against the projections of the ThisDay newspaper’s owned AriseTV survey, which had handed the region to the APC and PDP candidates.
Speaking via his verified Twitter handle (@doyinokupe), Tuesday, the politician wrote: “Peter obi will win and lead massively in the SE (South East) averagely (70%) including all states in the SS (South South). In the SW (South West), PO (Peter Obi) will score min (minimum) of 40% in Lagos. 25% in Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti & Ondo. Osun 15%min. NW (North West) 40%min in kaduna & no less than 10% of all the other 6 states mainly bcos (because) of Igbo residents.
“ThisDay projections ignored many important electoral parameters that hv operated in our polity over more than 60yrs. Without any doubt PO will score 25% in no less than 24/25 states including Taraba, Adamawa & Gombe & will lead all the other 3 numerically. He is d candidate to beat.”
According to the THISDAY poll – The Explainer – released by the THISDAY 2023 Election Centre, a breakdown of the new realities is advanced, with implications for each candidate.
“With the changing realities in next year’s electoral permutations, there is an increasing likelihood that the first ballot at the February 25 presidential election may not produce a clear winner.
“By implication, there may be a run-off in the presidential bout before a clear winner is returned by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
“Although, with their current standing, the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, can still boast 21 states, where he is certain to get 25 per cent, while his All Progressives Congress (APC) rival, Bola Tinubu, is confident of 20 states, where he can also pull his weight.
“The candidates of Labour Party, Peter Obi, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, follow as third and fourth in that order with insignificant postings in many states to satisfy the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent of votes cast in 24 states.
“Some of the factors responsible for the new realities include the presence of the candidates in each of the states, their structures and support base, capacity to mobilise, the contents of their respective manifestos, ethnic sentiments, their popularity and name recognition, as well as financial war chest.
“While the factors function differently from zone to zone, those responsible for the state-by-state analysis also differ in many respects, with the political parties playing defining roles as well,” the poll read.
Meanwhile, Okupe’s position also counters those of the Anambra born-businessman, Prince Arthur Eze who had distanced himself from the Peter Obi presidential ambitions on the grounds that the Labour Party (LP) candidate does not stand a chance of winning in the poll.
Prince Eze, Tuesday, disassociated himself from Peter Obi’s 2023 presidential ambition, claiming that ‘he plainly told Obi that he cannot win; so that he would not waste his time and money.’
Eze, who made this known while speaking at the occasion of the 2022 Ofala festival of Igwe Robert Eze, the traditional ruler of Ukpo in Dunukofia local government area of the state, said he asked Obi to ‘drop his ambition, and wait for next time.’
“I warned Peter Obi to withdraw from this race but he would not listen. I told him plainly that I am not part of his plans. I told him to drop his ambition, and wait for next time.
“When he told me about his ambition, I asked him the states he thinks he can win in the west and in the north, he told me; but I was not convinced. I told him he cannot win; so that he would not waste his time and money,” he added.
Obi is also a former Governor of Anambra State.
“I warned Peter Obi to withdraw from this race but he would not listen. I told him plainly that I am not part of his plans. I told him to drop his ambition, and wait for next time,” Eze said.