By Wellington Jopelo
Oil market operators have said that petrol prices in Nigeria could fall significantly, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) potentially dropping to as low as ₦900 per litre if the ongoing peace process between the United States and Iran holds and global crude oil prices continue to decline.
The projection follows a recent drop in international crude oil prices, triggered by easing tensions in the Middle East after reports of a truce and diplomatic progress between both countries, which has helped calm fears of supply disruption.
According to industry stakeholders, the stability in global oil supply routes, especially through key transit points, is already influencing market sentiment and pushing crude prices downward in the international market.
They explained that since Nigeria imports refined petroleum products and also prices fuel based on global benchmarks, any sustained fall in crude oil prices is likely to reflect in local pump prices in the coming days or weeks.
Operators noted that if the current trend continues, landing costs of imported fuel could reduce further, creating room for marketers to adjust retail prices downward across filling stations.
Some energy experts also pointed out that Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector makes domestic fuel prices highly sensitive to global oil movements, foreign exchange rates, and shipping costs.
However, they cautioned that the expected price reduction will depend on whether the peace deal between the US and Iran remains stable, stressing that any renewed tension could quickly reverse gains in the oil market.
There are also expectations that local factors such as exchange rate volatility and distribution costs could influence how much of the global price drop is eventually passed on to consumers.
For now, Nigerians are watching the market closely as petrol prices remain one of the most sensitive issues affecting transport costs, food prices and general cost of living across the country.
If sustained, analysts say the development could bring some relief to consumers who have faced months of fluctuating fuel prices and rising living costs.