By Wellington Jopelo
Nigeria’s spending on imported refined petroleum products has dropped sharply over the past two years, falling by 54 per cent to $6.71bn, new data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have shown.
Figures from the CBN’s Balance of Payments reports indicate that fuel import spending declined from $14.58bn in the first nine months of 2023 to $11.38bn in the same period of 2024, before sliding further to $6.71bn between January and September 2025.
A review of the CBN’s 2023 and 2024 full-year reports and the Q3 2025 data shows a steady reduction in Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, with import bills falling year after year during the period.
Between January and September 2024 alone, Nigeria spent $3.20bn less on fuel imports than it did in the same months of 2023, representing a decline of about 22 per cent. The reduction became more pronounced in 2025, when fuel imports dropped by another $4.67bn, or 41 per cent, within nine months the steepest fall recorded in the period reviewed.
Overall, the data show that Nigeria spent $7.87bn less on refined fuel imports in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2023, easing pressure on foreign exchange demand linked to petroleum products.
The CBN figures also revealed a 41 per cent year-on-year decline in fuel imports by the third quarter of 2025, suggesting early gains from import substitution as local and rehabilitated refineries increase output.
Analysts say the sharp drop in fuel import spending reflects a mix of policy reforms and market changes aimed at protecting Nigeria’s external reserves and stabilising the naira. For decades, the country depended heavily on imported refined fuel due to weak local production capacity and poor infrastructure, making fuel imports one of the biggest drains on foreign exchange.
The removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 marked a major shift, as higher pump prices reduced consumption and cut demand driven by arbitrage. This move, alongside tighter foreign exchange controls by the CBN, helped to slow fuel imports and limit speculative demand for dollars.
Another major factor has been the gradual growth in domestic refining, particularly in the downstream sector. Industry watchers point to increased competition following the entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has significantly altered supply dynamics in the market.
Despite the progress, marketers still spent an estimated $6.71bn on imported fuel during the review period, highlighting Nigeria’s continued dependence on foreign supplies, even as local refining improves.
Energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare cautioned against claims that fuel importation has ended. He noted that while reliance on imported petrol has reduced, it has not disappeared.
In a commentary titled “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said recent statements suggesting Nigeria no longer imports petrol are overly optimistic.
“Dangote Refinery has improved domestic supply and reduced Nigeria’s marginal dependence on imports, but it does not eliminate them,” he said, adding that the downstream market still operates on an import-parity basis.
According to him, even when fuel imports are low, the option to import remains critical for price stability, stock security, and managing supply risks such as refinery downtime or logistics challenges.
He further explained that the Petroleum Industry Act supports a liberalised and competitive downstream market, leaving no room for official declarations that fuel imports have completely stopped.
“The right way to describe the situation is reduced marginal dependence on imports, not total elimination,” Iledare said, warning that careless language could weaken policy credibility.
Also reacting, petroleum market analyst and CEO of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, described the 54 per cent drop in fuel import spending as a major development for Nigeria’s energy sector.
He attributed the decline largely to increased local production, noting that Dangote Refinery’s reported daily supply of over 50 million litres aligns with the moderation seen in CBN data.
According to Olatide, the combination of growing local refining capacity and limited imports is gradually strengthening Nigeria’s energy security.
Further breakdown of the data showed that fuel imports stood at $3.26bn in the first quarter of 2025, before dropping to $1.80bn in the second quarter and $1.65bn in the third quarter, reflecting a steady slowdown across the year.
However, Nigeria’s total import bill continued to rise, driven mainly by non-oil imports. Total imports grew from $9.20bn in Q1 2025 to $10.30bn in Q3, while non-oil imports climbed to $7.08bn in the third quarter.
On the export side, earnings from crude oil, gas, and refined products improved, reaching $13.05bn in Q3 2025, supported largely by crude oil exports. Gas exports, however, declined sharply due to infrastructure challenges and global market pressures.
Analysts say that while the drop in fuel imports is encouraging, Nigeria’s journey toward full energy self-sufficiency will depend on consistent refinery performance, improved infrastructure, and stable market conditions.