By Wellington Jopelo
Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States took a sharp turn in 2025 as export earnings dropped heavily while imports from the American market surged, leaving the country with a wide trade gap.
Data reviewed from official trade records show that goods shipped from Nigeria to the US between January and September 2025 fell significantly compared to the same period the previous year. At the same time, Nigeria’s purchases from the US more than doubled, wiping out the trade advantage the country once enjoyed.
Within the nine-month period, Nigeria earned about ₦3.65 trillion from exports to the US, down from ₦4.59 trillion recorded a year earlier. The drop, estimated at nearly ₦1 trillion, reflects weaker demand for Nigerian goods, especially non-oil products. In contrast, imports from the US jumped to about ₦6.8 trillion, compared with just over ₦3 trillion in the same period of 2024.
As a result, Nigeria recorded a trade deficit of roughly ₦3.15 trillion with the US in the first three quarters of 2025. This was a major reversal from the ₦1.57 trillion surplus posted during the same period in 2024.
The downturn followed the introduction of higher import duties by the United States under a new tariff policy signed by President Donald Trump in late July 2025. The new regime raised tariffs on Nigerian goods from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, with full effect from August. While crude oil was largely exempted, many non-oil exports were affected, creating uncertainty for buyers and reducing demand.
A closer look at the numbers shows that Nigeria’s exports to the US weakened steadily as the year progressed. After opening strong in the first quarter of 2025, export earnings declined in the second quarter and fell sharply by the third quarter. Imports, however, moved in the opposite direction, rising sharply each quarter and widening the trade gap.
In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US had grown consistently across the first three quarters, while imports remained relatively low. This balance produced steady trade surpluses throughout the period. That pattern disappeared in 2025 as export earnings fell and import bills ballooned.
By mid-2025, the US had dropped out of Nigeria’s top export destinations, even though it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports. This shift highlights Nigeria’s growing dependence on foreign goods and the vulnerability of its export earnings to external policy changes.
Product data further explains the imbalance. Early in 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US were led mainly by crude oil, fertiliser, jet fuel and gas products. However, by the second and third quarters, the export basket narrowed sharply, with only small volumes of agricultural and industrial goods shipped. On the import side, Nigeria brought in large volumes of petroleum products, vehicles, wheat and industrial materials from the US, with values rising rapidly as the year went on.
Despite the setback, the Federal Government has played down fears of long-term damage. Officials say Nigeria is strengthening its non-oil revenue base and expanding trade ties beyond the US market. The government insists the economy is better positioned to absorb external shocks than in previous years.
Authorities have also stressed that Nigeria will not rush into retaliatory measures, but will instead focus on reforms, diversification and regional trade opportunities, particularly within Africa. Efforts are ongoing to deepen trade links with other global partners and reduce over-reliance on any single market.
Analysts note that while the tariff changes have exposed weaknesses in Nigeria’s export structure, they also underline the need for stronger non-oil production and broader market access. Many agree that building resilience through diversification remains Nigeria’s best path forward, especially in an era of shifting global trade rules and tighter border controls.